THE MT VOID
Mt. Holz Science Fiction Society
06/21/02 -- Vol. 20, No. 51

El Presidente: Mark Leeper, mleeper@optonline.net
The Power Behind El Pres: Evelyn Leeper, eleeper@optonline.net
Back issues at http://www.geocities.com/evelynleeper
All material copyright by author unless otherwise noted.

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Topics:
	Beware the Child (comments by Mark R. Leeper)
	A Melange of Movie-Related Books (book reviews by Evelyn 
		C. Leeper)

===================================================================

TOPIC: Beware the Child (comments by Mark R. Leeper)

In the late 1800s the weather phenomenon known as an El Nino 
occurred about once every decade or so.  Now it is more like one 
every four years.  The last El Nino was in 1997 and 1998.  This 
has a big effect on our weather.  There have been recent news 
stories about a possible El Nino coming toward the end of this 
year, so this might be a good time to discuss what one is.  
Frequently the worst effect of El Nino occurs in early winter.  
That is where the name comes from.  It is something that comes at 
Christmas and the name is Spanish for "the child."  Perhaps 
partially brought on by the warm weather we have been having the 
next El Nino may start next December.

Most of us know that El Nino means bad weather is coming.  It is 
bad in the Pacific, but it brings bad conditions worldwide also.  
But few of us know exactly what is happening when we get this 
unfortunately no longer freak weather condition.  It is actually 
fairly interesting.

First, let's talk about what El Nino is not or rather, what is not 
El Nino.  Wind conditions affect the water in the equatorial 
Pacific from the northern part of South America to Indonesia.  
Normally in this stretch of the Pacific the wind blows westward.  
That does not sound like it is crucial, but it has far-reaching 
effects.  The wind blows across the surface of the water and 
actually pushes the upper levels of water westward.  This actually 
puts a sort of slant on the surface of the ocean.  Sea level in 
the western Pacific is, believe it or not, about twenty inches or 
so higher than it is at the eastern end just due to the effect of 
the trade winds pushing water in that direction.  That does not 
sound like a whole lot, does it?  Considering the depth of the 
ocean that does not sound like much at all, but it causes an 
accumulation of warm ocean water at the west end of this trans-
ocean wind belt.  We get an east to west churn in the oceans with 
the warm water moving west.  But water is, of course, fluid.  
Underneath the cold water moves in to replace the displaced and 
churning up all sorts of good stuff from beneath with deep water 
currents flowing east.  The stuff churned up from the bottom is 
plant and animal life and it is food for the fish off of Peru, 
Ecuador, and Colombia.  Now we are talking economy.  The warm 
water toward the west of this corridor, with a five centigrade 
degree rise just from the effect of winds, is more likely to 
evaporate, bringing clouds and rain to Southeast Asia, welcome for 
rice-growers.  Now we are talking economy and climate.  South 
America does not normally get this rain, but their crops don't 
need or even want it.  They are not big rice-growers.  That is 
what normally happens.  Societies on both sides of the Pacific 
have adapted to that condition.

What happens differently when you have the condition called El 
Nino?  Well, there is just not so much wind across the surface of 
the Pacific.  That's all.  But not having those winds has big 
consequences.  You lose the effect of having the winds effectively 
bunch up the rain clouds and the warm water at the western side of 
the Pacific.  Of course it is not bunching the clouds themselves 
but the conditions that cause clouds.  Each region gets the 
weather conditions that the other region wants.  Southeast Asia, 
which needs the rain for rice production, doesn't get the rain, 
but they get drought instead.  Meanwhile Peru, Ecuador, and 
Colombia find that what they are getting is a lot of heavy rain 
which frequently leads to flooding and destroyed crops.  What they 
are not getting is all that fish food being churned up and pushed 
up from below.  Less churned up food means fewer fish and that 
really hurts their economy.  Upper level wind patterns are 
affected also.  You have these heavy rain clouds over Latin 
America.  Other wind streams seems have to go around them rather 
than move that moisture which offers resistance.  The analogy 
usually given is a stream flowing around boulders.  Like the 
boulders create downstream waves there are downstream high and low 
pressure areas created by the clouds.

So the question is, why should El Nino be happening so much more 
frequently?  I have not heard an explanation and can only 
speculate.  Normally air goes east to west over the surface of the 
Pacific.  That air comes from someplace, probably from higher 
level winds going west to east over the Pacific.  Think of it like 
a large conveyor belt.  I think that this side of the Pacific is 
more industrially developed than the west side.  We have more 
factories and more automobiles.  The Far East is catching up but 
they are still behind.  More industry and cars mean more heated 
air.  Heated air is less dense and rises.  It pushes back against 
the current of air diving down to cross the surface of the 
Pacific.  It fights and tries to reverse the big conveyor belt.  
Eventually the flow may just reverse.  When that happens El Nino 
will be the rule rather than the exception.  That could mean 
disaster to many economies.  This particularly true since the 
frequency of it happening is increasing.  The world economy can 
take an El Nino every dozen years or so.  But now it seems to be 
happening every four or so years and they are probably going to 
continue with increasing frequency.  That could be a pretty scary 
effect if it really happens.

(Postscript: While I was preparing this they just happened to have 
a piece about El Nino on a Boston TV station.  Hoping to get some 
information I watched expectantly.  They said almost exclusively 
things I knew and presumably now you know.  They said they would 
be back in a moment to tell how El Nino would affect New England 
weather.  So I waited through the car ad and the grocery sale 
announcement.  They had three or four ads before coming back.  
When they did they asked their weather person how El Nino will 
affect New England weather.  Honest to Pete, this is the answer I 
waited through four commercials for.  She said, "It will change 
the probability of rain storms and snow storms."  How's that?  
Useful, huh?  I figure that is a good note to leave you with.)  
[-mrl]

===================================================================

TOPIC: A Melange of Movie-Related Books (book reviews by Evelyn 
C. Leeper)

Given that I'm not writing full reviews of all the books I have 
read recently, I'm looking for some way to group them.  So this 
batch are all connected in some way to Hollywood, even if only in 
having been filmed.

Sam Arkoff's autobiography, "Flying Through Hollywood by the Seat 
of My Pants" is a much less polished autobiography than one 
usually finds.  It is more informal chatting than thorough, and I 
have to say that it doesn't necessarily paint a completely 
favorable picture of the man who started American International 
Pictures.  (Of course, this may be more that's it's not the usual 
self-aggrandizing autobiography we have become used to from 
celebrities.)

Roger Ebert quotes only the best in his book "The Great Movies".  
(See his article on "Star Wars" for an example of what I mean.)  
But though his selection of a hundred films which he calls "Great 
Movies" is sure to generate the arguments and discussions that 
such lists always do, I found myself reading only the articles 
about films I had already seen.  Maybe it was that the other films 
were so uncommon that it was unlikely I would *ever* see them.  
(Many were foreign films, and not always as well known as 
Bergman's or Kurosawa's.)  I suppose I prefer books that discuss 
influences and trends rather than films in (semi-)isolation.

Ebert's "A Kiss Is Still a Kiss" doesn't have a thematic thread 
running through it either, but since it is a collection of 
interviews that were never part of a single theme, that's less of 
a problem.  It's also Ebert's first book, so the style is a lot 
less polished than his later books. 

A question asked on rec.arts.movies.past-films led me to read Lew 
Wallace's "Ben-Hur".  The question was about the chariot race and 
its outcome.  The answer is, "No, in the novel Masala doesn't 
die."  What's more interesting, though, is that in the novel it is 
Ben-Hur, not Masala, who uses the spiked chariot wheels.  The book 
is nowhere near as long as people seem to think--at 561 pages in 
my edition, it's certainly shorter than Tom Clancy's doorstops--
but it is written in a nineteenth century flowery style that makes 
for slower going.  There is also a love triangle (or perhaps even 
a quadrangle) involving Gaspar's daughter and a lot more about a 
planned uprising of the Jews against the Romans.  If you can cope 
with the language, it is worth reading if only to compare what 
Wallace wrote with what Hollywood did with it.

Another story much abridged by Hollywood (and, for that matter, by 
most publishers) is Alexandre Dumas's "The Count of Monte Cristo".  
(Well, okay, this ran 1237 pages in my unabridged edition.)  The 
basic story remains in the various film versions, but a lot of the 
elaboration and detail is gone.  Mark thinks that Bob Kane might 
have gotten some of the inspiration for "Batman" from this, with 
the idea of a wealthy man who is secretly avenging wrongs.  While 
the movies are enjoyable enough, they can't compare to the book.

Now with H. G. Wells's "The Time Machine", it's possible that the 
George Pal film is as good as the book, though very different in 
tone.  (I haven't seen the new version, but rumor has it that it 
comes in a poor third.)  And if the length of the previous two 
books is daunting, this is perfect.  (By Hugo standards, it is 
actually a novella rather than a novel, being about 32,500 words.)

You might think that the story of the Titanic wouldn't need yet 
another book, but Wyn Craig Wade's "The Titanic: End of a Dream" 
spends very little time on the disaster itself, and focuses on the 
aftermath, and particularly the aftermath.  He spends most of the 
book on the hearings held regarding what had happened, but puts it 
in the context of the time, looking at the differing British and 
American perspectives, and covering the major changes in maritime 
law and policy that came about because of the sinking.  Maybe all 
this is not as romantic as "The Heart of the Ocean," but it's 
definitely more interesting historically.

And finally there is Sylvia Nasar's biography of John Nash, "A 
Beautiful Mind".  In this case, I think the movie, although it 
takes many liberties with the events in Nash's life, actually may 
do a better job of conveying both Nash's genius and his illness in 
ways the book doesn't.  The book requires more technical expertise 
on the part of the reader and is at times somewhat unclear, while 
the movie uses images to convey some of the ideas more strongly.  
However, what is most interesting in the book is following the 
various treatments tried over the years, because that tells the 
reader as much about the development of psychiatry as Nash's work 
does about the development of economics.  [-ecl]

===================================================================

                                          Mark Leeper
                                          mleeper@optonline.net


           Education ... has produced a vast population able 
           to read but unable to distinguish what is worth 
           reading.
                                      -- George Macaulay Trevelyan


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